A detailed industry analysis published by a consortium of maritime and energy research bodies has concluded that green ammonia — produced from green hydrogen — could meet up to 40% of global shipping fuel demand by 2050. The projection assumes production capacity scales at the rate currently anticipated and that bunkering infrastructure is developed at key ports over the coming decade. The finding positions green ammonia alongside methanol and liquefied hydrogen as one of the leading candidates for decarbonising international maritime trade.
Shipping accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and the International Maritime Organization has set a target to reach net-zero emissions from international shipping as close to 2050 as possible. Ammonia carries no carbon, produces no CO₂ when burned or used in fuel cells, and can be transported using existing chemical tanker infrastructure — making it technically and logistically attractive as a marine fuel at scale compared with alternatives that require entirely new distribution systems.
The analysis identifies production cost as the primary constraint on ammonia’s uptake as shipping fuel. Green ammonia — synthesised from green hydrogen via the Haber-Bosch process — currently costs substantially more than conventional heavy fuel oil. However, the study projects that ammonia production costs will converge with fossil alternatives during the 2035–2040 period as electrolyser manufacturing capacity scales and renewable energy costs continue to fall globally.
Green ammonia production begins with green hydrogen. The same electrolyser technology that underpins distributed property hydrogen systems forms the foundation of industrial-scale green hydrogen and ammonia production. As electrolyser manufacturing scales globally to meet shipping and industrial demand, costs fall across all scales of application — benefiting both large export projects and smaller off-grid energy installations alike.
