Energy research firm DNV has published a major update to its hydrogen outlook, forecasting that global clean hydrogen production will grow approximately 100-fold between now and 2060, underpinned by cumulative investment of USD 3.2 trillion over that period. The forecast identifies China as the single largest contributor to hydrogen growth, expected to account for 35% of new production and demand, supported by the country’s dominant electrolyser manufacturing base and rapidly expanding renewable energy capacity. DNV projects global hydrogen volumes will grow by 170% by 2060.
The updated outlook reflects both the long-term potential of hydrogen and the near-term challenges that have slowed its early development. DNV has revised its mid-century hydrogen forecast downward from previous estimates, citing insufficient policy support as the primary reason that early project ambitions have not converted to large-scale deployment at the pace originally anticipated. Nonetheless, the firm maintains that hydrogen has a substantial and growing role in the energy transition, particularly in sectors where direct electrification is technically difficult or economically impractical.
Demand in DNV’s forecast is led by steelmaking, aviation, and maritime transport, which together are projected to account for more than half of total clean hydrogen use by 2060. Each of these sectors faces fundamental decarbonisation challenges that hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels — including green ammonia and sustainable aviation fuel — are uniquely positioned to address. The $3.2 trillion investment figure underscores the scale of industrial transformation that clean hydrogen is expected to drive over the coming decades.
DNV’s long-term growth projection for clean hydrogen reflects the same fundamental economics that make distributed hydrogen systems viable today. As electrolyser technology scales and renewable energy costs continue to fall, clean hydrogen becomes increasingly cost-competitive — at every scale from multi-gigawatt export projects to off-grid residential and agricultural systems serving farms, villas, and remote properties.
